Macroeconomic Outlook 20th March 2025

As of March 20, 2025, the global economic landscape is characterized by a mix of growth prospects, policy adjustments, and geopolitical developments impacting major economies and their currencies.​ Here’s the macro outlook 2025 overview for the global economy.

United States Macro Outlook 2025

The Federal Reserve has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast downward from 2.1% to 1.7%, citing inflationary pressures linked to recent tariff policies. Consequently, the Fed has maintained its benchmark interest rates within the 4.25-4.5% range, adopting a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties. These developments have contributed to notable gains in financial markets, with gold reaching new highs. ​

Europe Macro Outlook 2025

The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.5% in response to both global and domestic uncertainties, including potential U.S. trade tariffs and upcoming tax hikes. Despite inflation consistently exceeding the 2% target, the BoE remains cautious about rate adjustments. European markets have experienced modest gains, supported by significant investment plans in Germany and the broader EU. ​

China Macro Outlook 2025

Chinese markets have faced declines due to profit-taking activities, which have impacted broader Asian market gains. Despite this, the Chinese yuan has remained stable against the U.S. dollar. Additionally, China’s growth forecast has been slightly increased, reflecting domestic stimulus efforts aimed at boosting consumption and economic activity. ​

Australia Macro Outlook 2025

Australian shares have risen by 1%, influenced by positive sentiment from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s indications of possible rate cuts later in the year. However, the Australian dollar has experienced a slight decline due to weaker employment figures, highlighting ongoing challenges in the labor market.

Global Outlook

The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points, attributing this to escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties. These factors have negatively impacted stock markets, with the S&P 500 experiencing a 9% decline since its peak in February. Despite these challenges, a diversified global investment portfolio is recommended, as non-U.S. equities have shown resilience, particularly in Chinese and European markets.

Upcoming Events with Potential Impact – Macro Outlook 2025

• U.S. Tariff Implementations: President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products commenced on March 4, with additional tariffs on imported steel and aluminum effective from March 12. Further tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are anticipated by April 2, potentially influencing global trade dynamics and economic confidence. ​
• World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings: Scheduled from April 21 to 26 in Washington, D.C., these meetings will focus on international development, the global economy, and financial markets, potentially shaping future economic policies.
• Economist Impact Events: Notable events include “AI for CFOs” on March 25 in London, the “4th annual Sustainability Week Asia” from March 25-26 in Bangkok, and the “5th annual Business Innovation Summit” on March 26 in London. These gatherings are expected to address pressing economic and technological issues with potential global implications. ​

In summary, the global economic environment remains complex, influenced by trade policies, inflationary trends, and geopolitical events. Stakeholders should closely monitor these developments to navigate the evolving economic landscape effectively. That’s it for the macro outlook 2025 for March, stay tuned for future macroeconomic insights with Macro Global Markets.

Macroeconomics are an important part of understanding where things are going, but it’s critical as a trader, to also understand the workings of the micro movements – the events and conditions that impact the market price on the day. While it doesn’t matter so much for buy and hold strategies, someone building positions on a dollar cost average framework, or those who are far more active through algorithmic trading, would benefit from diving deeper on how financial markets function on a smaller scale. To learn more about stock trading, head over to our Learn page.